{
  "schema_version": "1.1",
  "as_of": "2026-09-01T21:40:00+08:00",
  "cutoff_note": "已纳入 Microsoft FY26 Q4，Alphabet、Meta、Amazon 2026 Q2，以及 NVIDIA FY27 Q2 和 CoreWeave 2026 Q2；Amazon Q2 新闻稿未重述全年 CapEx 指引，约 2000 亿美元仍保留上季公开口径。",
  "usage": {
    "index": 7382.416388763751,
    "change_4w": 0.5235674603163087,
    "change_13w": 2.0940768856528185,
    "status": "weakness_signal",
    "week_end": "2026-08-30"
  },
  "aici": {
    "value": 84,
    "exact_value": 84,
    "label": "繁荣偏热",
    "components": [
      {
        "key": "demand",
        "label": "需求 / 使用",
        "weight": 0.15,
        "score": 95,
        "evidence": "ORTAI 7,382；13 周 209.4%",
        "contribution": 14.25
      },
      {
        "key": "monetization",
        "label": "AI / 云 / 芯片变现",
        "weight": 0.25,
        "score": 95,
        "evidence": "五项公开商业化增速中位数 62.5%",
        "contribution": 23.75
      },
      {
        "key": "orders",
        "label": "订单与 RPO",
        "weight": 0.2,
        "score": 65,
        "evidence": "可比订单增速中位数 25%，但超大客户集中度高",
        "contribution": 13
      },
      {
        "key": "capex",
        "label": "CapEx 意愿",
        "weight": 0.15,
        "score": 95,
        "evidence": "核心厂商仍在上调或维持 2026 投资计划",
        "contribution": 14.25
      },
      {
        "key": "supply",
        "label": "产能紧张度",
        "weight": 0.1,
        "score": 85,
        "evidence": "管理层仍称供给受限；同代租价/出租率覆盖不足",
        "contribution": 8.5
      },
      {
        "key": "cashflow",
        "label": "现金流 / 折旧承受力",
        "weight": 0.15,
        "score": 68,
        "evidence": "折旧与 FCF 承压，但大盘 IG OAS 仍为 79bp",
        "contribution": 10.2
      }
    ]
  },
  "obri": {
    "value": 66,
    "exact_value": 66.1,
    "label": "风险上升",
    "components": [
      {
        "key": "gap",
        "label": "投资—变现增速缺口",
        "weight": 0.25,
        "score": 78.8,
        "evidence": "可比公司 CapEx 增速领先商业化增速中位数 27.2pct",
        "contribution": 19.7
      },
      {
        "key": "burden",
        "label": "FCF 与折旧负担",
        "weight": 0.25,
        "score": 65.6,
        "evidence": "折旧增速中位数 37.3%；IG/BBB/HY OAS 较年内低点扩大 6/5/0bp",
        "contribution": 16.4
      },
      {
        "key": "concentration",
        "label": "订单 / 客户集中度",
        "weight": 0.2,
        "score": 75,
        "evidence": "Microsoft、Oracle 与 CoreWeave 的新增订单均受超大合同影响",
        "contribution": 15
      },
      {
        "key": "supply",
        "label": "供给转松风险",
        "weight": 0.15,
        "score": 35,
        "evidence": "尚无价格与出租率同步转弱证据，关键数据覆盖不足",
        "contribution": 5.25
      },
      {
        "key": "financing",
        "label": "估值与融资脆弱度",
        "weight": 0.15,
        "score": 64.8,
        "evidence": "外部融资明显增加，但大盘信用市场仍保持开放",
        "contribution": 9.72
      }
    ]
  },
  "fri": {
    "status": "watch",
    "status_label": "观察",
    "red_axes": 0,
    "yellow_axes": 2,
    "insufficient_axes": 1,
    "summary": "现金回报与折旧压力已亮黄灯，但 CapEx 下修和 GPU 供给转松尚未确认。",
    "axes": [
      {
        "key": "capex",
        "label": "C · CapEx 下修",
        "score": 0,
        "coverage": 1,
        "status": "green",
        "status_label": "未触发",
        "headline": "可比 4 家中 0 家下调；修订中位数 +0.9%",
        "rule": "1 家下调超过 5% 为黄灯；核心篮子至少 2 家且中位数下调超过 10% 才确认红灯。"
      },
      {
        "key": "supply",
        "label": "S · GPU 供给转松",
        "score": 14.1,
        "coverage": 0.5,
        "status": "insufficient_data",
        "status_label": "覆盖不足",
        "headline": "公开挂牌价与配额基线已建立，但同代合同价和云厂商出租率尚无完整时间序列",
        "rule": "同一 SKU 租价季度跌超 15%，且出租率下降 10 个百分点或可获得容量持续增加 8 周，才确认红灯。"
      },
      {
        "key": "monetization",
        "label": "M · 商业化吸收",
        "score": 55.6,
        "coverage": 0.9,
        "status": "yellow",
        "status_label": "观察",
        "headline": "商业化增速中位数 62.5%，但 CapEx/CFO 中位数已达 104.7%",
        "rule": "收入/毛利增速落后滞后 CapEx 超过 20 个百分点，并且续约或活跃付费使用连续两季转弱，才确认红灯。",
        "diagnostics": {
          "median_capex_to_cfo": 1.047,
          "median_fcf_to_cfo": -0.047,
          "median_commercial_growth_pct": 62.5,
          "lagged_capex_revenue_gap_pct": null,
          "renewal_decline_consecutive_quarters": null,
          "active_paid_usage_decline_consecutive_quarters": null,
          "red_confirmation": false
        }
      },
      {
        "key": "funding",
        "label": "F · 折旧与信用",
        "score": 48.6,
        "coverage": 0.85,
        "status": "yellow",
        "status_label": "观察",
        "headline": "折旧增速中位数 37.3%；IG/BBB/HY OAS 较年内低点扩大 6/5/0bp",
        "rule": "折旧负担明显恶化，同时公司或项目债超额利差扩大超过 100bp，才确认红灯。",
        "credit_confirmation": false,
        "diagnostics": {
          "median_depreciation_growth_pct": 37.3,
          "median_fcf_to_cfo": -0.047,
          "ig_oas_bps": 79,
          "bbb_oas_bps": 97,
          "hy_oas_bps": 260,
          "company_excess_oas_change_bps": null,
          "project_debt_spread_change_bps": null
        }
      }
    ]
  },
  "valuation": {
    "normalization": {
      "method": "piecewise linear percentile anchors",
      "mapping": "P20 → 35, P50 → 50, P80 → 65; extrapolate with adjacent slope and clip to 0–100",
      "note": "热度衡量各序列相对自身历史的位置，不把不同市场的 P/E 倍数直接比较。"
    },
    "us": {
      "label": "Nasdaq-100 next-twelve-month P/E",
      "value": 24.7,
      "observation_date": "2026-07-10",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-09-01",
      "source_url": "https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/global-indexes/biweekly-investment-insights-earnings-remain-the-clear-driver-for-equity-returns",
      "quality": "A",
      "history_source_url": "https://historyofmarket.com/api/ndx/forward-pe.json",
      "history_source_updated": "2026-09-01",
      "history_window": "2001-04-27 to 2026-08-05, 1,239 weekly observations",
      "anchors": {
        "p20": 16.772,
        "p50": 20.3,
        "p80": 26.86
      },
      "history": [
        {
          "quarter": "25Q1",
          "value": 23.34
        },
        {
          "quarter": "25Q2",
          "value": 26.95
        },
        {
          "quarter": "25Q3",
          "value": 26.84
        },
        {
          "quarter": "25Q4",
          "value": 25.01
        },
        {
          "quarter": "26Q1",
          "value": 21.03
        },
        {
          "quarter": "26Q2",
          "value": 24.29
        },
        {
          "quarter": "26Q3",
          "value": 24.7
        }
      ],
      "heat": 60.1
    },
    "china": {
      "label": "CSI Artificial Intelligence Theme Index (930713) P/E-TTM",
      "value": 45.66,
      "observation_date": "2026-09-01",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-09-01",
      "source_url": "https://www.csindex.com.cn/#/indices/family/detail?indexCode=930713",
      "api_url": "https://www.csindex.com.cn/csindex-home/perf/indexCsiDsPe?indexCode=930713",
      "quality": "A",
      "history_window": "2015-07-16 to 2026-09-01, 2,840 daily observations",
      "anchors": {
        "p20": 37.63,
        "p50": 45.13,
        "p80": 52.41
      },
      "history": [
        {
          "quarter": "25Q1",
          "value": null
        },
        {
          "quarter": "25Q2",
          "value": null
        },
        {
          "quarter": "25Q3",
          "value": null
        },
        {
          "quarter": "25Q4",
          "value": 52.53
        },
        {
          "quarter": "26Q1",
          "value": 48.2
        },
        {
          "quarter": "26Q2",
          "value": 61.94
        },
        {
          "quarter": "26Q3",
          "value": 45.66
        }
      ],
      "heat": 51.1
    },
    "history": [
      {
        "quarter": "25Q1",
        "us_value": 23.34,
        "us_heat": 57,
        "china_value": null,
        "china_heat": null
      },
      {
        "quarter": "25Q2",
        "us_value": 26.95,
        "us_heat": 65.2,
        "china_value": null,
        "china_heat": null
      },
      {
        "quarter": "25Q3",
        "us_value": 26.84,
        "us_heat": 65,
        "china_value": null,
        "china_heat": null
      },
      {
        "quarter": "25Q4",
        "us_value": 25.01,
        "us_heat": 60.8,
        "china_value": 52.53,
        "china_heat": 65.2
      },
      {
        "quarter": "26Q1",
        "us_value": 21.03,
        "us_heat": 51.7,
        "china_value": 48.2,
        "china_heat": 56.3
      },
      {
        "quarter": "26Q2",
        "us_value": 24.29,
        "us_heat": 59.1,
        "china_value": 61.94,
        "china_heat": 84.6
      },
      {
        "quarter": "26Q3",
        "us_value": 24.7,
        "us_heat": 60.1,
        "china_value": 45.66,
        "china_heat": 51.1
      }
    ]
  },
  "data_freshness": [
    {
      "dataset": "OpenRouter Token",
      "status": "current",
      "observation": "2026-08-31",
      "display_period": "完整周截至 2026-08-30",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-09-01 21:36 CST",
      "note": "官方 API 仅滞后 1 日；历史缺 2025-06-15、2025-07-15 两个日历日。"
    },
    {
      "dataset": "Hyperscaler 财报 / CapEx",
      "status": "current",
      "observation": "Microsoft FY26 Q4、Alphabet / Meta / Amazon / CoreWeave 2026 Q2、NVIDIA FY27 Q2；其余最新已披露季",
      "display_period": "四家 hyperscaler 与 NVIDIA / CoreWeave 最新季均已纳入",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-09-01 21:40 CST",
      "note": "NVIDIA 数据中心收入同比增长 117%；CoreWeave Q2 backlog 约 1040 亿美元，不含 Q3 初新增的超 250 亿美元客户承诺。"
    },
    {
      "dataset": "GPU 公开价格 / 可获得性",
      "status": "baseline",
      "observation": "2026-09-01",
      "display_period": "Runpod 挂牌价；Google Cloud 价格与配额",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-09-01 21:40 CST",
      "note": "Runpod Secure Cloud H100 SXM / H200 / B200 挂牌价升至 3.29 / 4.59 / 6.79 美元每 GPU 小时；Google Cloud H100 / H200 Spot 约为 53.09 / 49.01 美元每 8-GPU VM 小时。仅为公开挂牌基线，不是合同价或出租率。"
    },
    {
      "dataset": "企业续约 / 付费使用",
      "status": "missing",
      "observation": "最新财报公开代理",
      "display_period": "缺连续两季同口径披露",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-09-01 21:40 CST",
      "note": "缺口保持为空，不以收入增速替代续约率。"
    },
    {
      "dataset": "ICE BofA 信用利差",
      "status": "current",
      "observation": "2026-08-28",
      "display_period": "IG 79bp · BBB 97bp · HY 260bp",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-09-01 21:40 CST",
      "note": "FRED 最新可得日；已把 BBB 加入公式。"
    },
    {
      "dataset": "数据中心项目债 / 公司超额 OAS",
      "status": "missing",
      "observation": "无可公开复现连续序列",
      "display_period": "当前不评分为绿色",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-09-01 21:40 CST",
      "note": "只有零散成交与媒体报价，不足以构成稳定时间序列。"
    },
    {
      "dataset": "美股 / A股估值",
      "status": "current",
      "observation": "NDX 2026-07-10；930713 2026-09-01",
      "display_period": "24.7× / 45.66×",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-09-01 21:40 CST",
      "note": "分别使用最新可复现官方观察；网页单列观测日，避免假装同日。"
    }
  ],
  "forecast": {
    "quarters": [
      "25Q1",
      "25Q2",
      "25Q3",
      "25Q4",
      "26Q1",
      "26Q2",
      "26Q3",
      "26Q4",
      "27Q1",
      "27Q2",
      "27Q3",
      "27Q4",
      "28Q1"
    ],
    "current_index": 6,
    "aici_actual": [
      52,
      60,
      69,
      77,
      84,
      87,
      84
    ],
    "obri_actual": [
      28,
      34,
      43,
      52,
      59,
      63,
      66
    ],
    "aici_base": [
      84,
      81,
      77,
      73,
      68,
      63,
      59
    ],
    "aici_bull": [
      84,
      86,
      88,
      87,
      84,
      81,
      79
    ],
    "aici_bear": [
      84,
      72,
      59,
      45,
      34,
      27,
      31
    ],
    "obri_forecast": [
      66,
      70,
      73,
      75,
      71,
      66,
      60
    ]
  },
  "methodology": {
    "aici": "AICI = Σ(需求、变现、订单、CapEx 意愿、产能紧张度、现金流承受力的分项分 × 权重)",
    "obri": "OBRI = Σ(投资—变现缺口、FCF/折旧、集中度、供给转松风险、融资脆弱度的分项分 × 权重)",
    "fri": "FRI 不做简单平均：两轴黄灯进入观察；多轴红灯且必须包含 CapEx 或融资压力，才确认飞轮反转。",
    "missing_data": "关键数据缺失记为覆盖不足，不按绿色处理。"
  },
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "Microsoft CapEx",
      "url": "https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/investor/events/fy-2026/earnings-fy-2026-q4",
      "quality": "A"
    },
    {
      "label": "Alphabet CapEx",
      "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1652044/000165204426000071/goog-20260630.htm",
      "quality": "A"
    },
    {
      "label": "Amazon CapEx",
      "url": "https://ir.aboutamazon.com/news-release/news-release-details/2026/Amazon-com-Announces-First-Quarter-Results/default.aspx",
      "quality": "A"
    },
    {
      "label": "Meta CapEx",
      "url": "https://investor.atmeta.com/investor-news/press-release-details/2026/Meta-Reports-Second-Quarter-2026-Results/default.aspx",
      "quality": "A"
    },
    {
      "label": "ICE BofA US Corporate OAS via FRED",
      "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/BAMLC0A0CM",
      "quality": "A"
    },
    {
      "label": "ICE BofA US High Yield OAS via FRED",
      "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/BAMLH0A0HYM2",
      "quality": "A"
    },
    {
      "label": "ICE BofA BBB US Corporate OAS via FRED",
      "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/BAMLC0A4CBBB",
      "quality": "A"
    },
    {
      "label": "Microsoft FY26 Q4",
      "url": "https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/investor/events/fy-2026/earnings-fy-2026-q4",
      "quality": "A"
    },
    {
      "label": "Alphabet Q2 2026",
      "url": "https://blog.google/company-news/inside-google/message-ceo/alphabet-earnings-q2-2026/",
      "quality": "A"
    },
    {
      "label": "CoreWeave Q2 2026",
      "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1769628/000176962826000362/coreweave2q26earningspress.htm",
      "quality": "A"
    },
    {
      "label": "Runpod GPU pricing",
      "url": "https://www.runpod.io/pricing",
      "quality": "B"
    },
    {
      "label": "Google Cloud accelerator pricing",
      "url": "https://cloud.google.com/products/compute/pricing/accelerator-optimized",
      "quality": "A"
    },
    {
      "label": "Google Cloud accelerator quota",
      "url": "https://docs.cloud.google.com/compute/resource-usage",
      "quality": "A"
    }
  ]
}